My eyes doth decieve.
I watch the Cavs and jump on the crowd mentality of “Hughes is teh suck!” and “Boobie is my baby!” But the numbers looks us all the eye and offer a quick kick to the shin to the contrary.
I was kicking around 82games.com looking at the Cavs stats when I noticed a slight change in the “Roland Rating” hierarchy.
The Roland Rating is a balance of man vs man production and team +/-. It’s roughly calculated by doubling the difference between a player’s productivity and there counterpart’s productivity, then adding his average +/- number and dividing by 3.
Hughes has just barely eclipsed Gibson, by a one tenth of a point, largely on the power of his defense. While his own production, in terms of PER is only 10, 4.5 points lower than Gibson, his opponent only manages 12.6, compared to Gibson’s man’s 21.3. Gibson makes up a lot of ground through his +/-, largely a part of playing more minutes alongside Lebron. (Boobie has played 605 minutes with Lebron, for the 2nd best 2 man +/- on the team. Hughes, only 266.)
I assumed the Roland Rating wasn’t tell much of the story, so I started looking elsewhere – next to my 2nd favorite deep-dig stats site, Knickerblogger.net, where things started to straighten out.
First, Hughes is up 1.5 points per 40. Looking further along the stat line, you can see that that is largely a product of Hughes’s usage rate, a mysterious stat the measures the number of touches a player gets per team possession while he’s on the floor. Hughes is a full 50% higher – his 22.6 trails only Lebron and ball-hoggin, trash-talking, turnover machine Shannon Brown (25.5).
Further look at those in depth “deep” statistics shows that Boobie assists much more than Hughes while turning it over only slightly more commonly. Hughes rebounds slightly better, but Gibson has a vastly superior edge in every shooting metric except for free throw shooting.
What it seems to shake out to is that Mike Brown has found the right formula bringing Hughes off the bench.
Gibson thrives off of being the support player alongside Lebron. His numbers certainly aren’t those of a player who can carry the team for long stretches, but for when space is created for him.
Hughes, on the other hand, offers a change of pace. Dreadful as he looks, he brings some positive numbers. He offers a slightly disruptive force defensively and is able to turn touches into points. Clearly he’s not the caliber player who contributes big numbers, but off the bench he should fill the void while Lebron rests.
I’ll never trust the numbers 100% in basketball. It’s too much of a team game. Still, for all the love we pour onto Boobie, Hughes can’t be that awful to be in the same ballpark numerically.